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  • Volume 62, Issue 5

Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method

Majid Mirzaei, Hadi Galavi, Mina Faghih, Yuk Feng Huang, Teang Shui Lee, Ahmed El-Shafie
Published August 2013, 62 (5) 309-320; DOI: 10.2166/aqua.2013.038
Majid Mirzaei
Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor DE, Malaysia E-mail: mirzaeii@gmail.com
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Hadi Galavi
Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor DE, Malaysia
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Mina Faghih
Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor DE, Malaysia
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Yuk Feng Huang
Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Teang Shui Lee
Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor DE, Malaysia
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Ahmed El-Shafie
Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor DE, Malaysia E-mail: mirzaeii@gmail.com
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Abstract

This study is designed to consider the uncertainty in the kinematic runoff and erosion model named KINEROS2. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used for assessing the uncertainty associated with model predictions, which assumes that due to the limitations in model structure, data and calibration scheme, many different parameter sets can make acceptable simulations. GLUE is a Bayesian approach based on the Monte Carlo method for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The assessment was performed in the Zayanderood River basin located in Central Iran. To make an accurate calibration, five runoff events were selected from three different gauging stations for the purpose. Statistical evaluations for streamflow prediction indicate that there is good agreement between the measured and simulated flows with Nash–Sutcliffe values of efficiency of 0.85 and 0.79 for calibration and validation periods respectively. Uncertainty analysis was carried out on the new distribution of input parameters for model validation.

  • GLUE
  • KINEROS
  • model calibration
  • uncertainty analysis
  • Received February 22, 2013.
  • Accepted May 17, 2013.
  • © IWA Publishing 2013

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Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - Aqua: 67 (2)
  Volume 62, Issue 5

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Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method
Majid Mirzaei, Hadi Galavi, Mina Faghih, Yuk Feng Huang, Teang Shui Lee, Ahmed El-Shafie
Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - Aqua Aug 2013, 62 (5) 309-320; DOI: 10.2166/aqua.2013.038
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Model calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff in the Zayanderood River basin using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method
Majid Mirzaei, Hadi Galavi, Mina Faghih, Yuk Feng Huang, Teang Shui Lee, Ahmed El-Shafie
Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology - Aqua Aug 2013, 62 (5) 309-320; DOI: 10.2166/aqua.2013.038

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Keywords

GLUE
KINEROS
model calibration
uncertainty analysis
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